Musings Often in Stereo

Analysis:

First off, the group stages. I don’t really see any major upsets. The groups tend to have a solid number one with a dogfight for two; the big exception is Group C, where England and the US are pretty even and well past Algeria and Slovenia. I have three groups coming down to goal differential to pick the second team, including the group of death in Group G; in all three, the second and third place teams are picked to have a 1-1 draw. This World Cup will be rough on the Asians – among the five AFC or OFC teams, only one is picked to even earn a draw in the entire tournament: South Korea, whom I charitably gave a 1-1 tie against Nigeria. North Korea isn’t even picked to score a goal in Group G, nor is Japan in Group E.

In the round of 16, I think it may be a bit of a bold move, but I’ve got the Germans losing to the U.S. The Germans have a rapidly aging side that relies on physicality; the U.S. can give them a game that they won’t expect. I also have the Italians going down to Cameroon. It’s the same sort of situation: Italy is older than you think, Samuel Eto’o is a beast and Cameroon is effectively playing with home field advantage in the first African World Cup. Outside of those two matches, no surprises, save for the Ivory Coast taking Spain to extra time (though really, is that much of a surprise?).

The quarters give up some intriguing matchups: will the Irish back England as they take on the cheating French bastards (answer: grudgingly)? How much of a shootout will Spain and Cameroon be (answer: five goals is easily in play)? Can the US play spoiler against the best player in the world in Lionel Messi (answer: come the fuck on, you honestly think they can give them a game)? Is there a game that isn’t all that intriguing in the quarters (answer: Brazil against the Netherlands — two great teams, sure, but we all know that the Dutch can’t win)?

In the semis, I really think that England match up fantastically against Brazil, especially if Brazil hangs back and lets England play for the second goal. In the end though, David James is the last keeper you want against penalty kicks, and Brazil has too many good shooters to lose. Spain and Argentina will also be interesting, particularly since the Argentine firepower is playing exclusively in La Liga — against the Spanish defense.

Not a real shock with the final. Brazil and Spain are clearly the two best teams in the world, and neither will have a terribly difficult trip. I picked Spain off of the fact that before losing a fluke match to the United States in the Confederations Cup, they hadn’t lost since 2007; they haven’t lost since. The Spanish national team reads like a World XI if people actually knew what they were talking about — the best goalkeeper in Iker Casillas, a back line that includes Carles Puyol (who singlehandedly proves that the more repulsive looking you are, the better you are on defense) and Sergio Ramos (who disproves the aforementioned rule), a midfield that leaves a major votegetter for the Ballon d’Or in Cesc Fabregas on the bench, and a striking corps that platoons Fernando Torres with David Villa as if every single player isn’t a goal scoring threat. Brazil is an excellent team with top-class players all over the place that have finally adjusted to playing substantive over stylish football under Dunga, but the Spanish team could go down as one of the top teams of all time. This World Cup should prove it.